It will be a sea change in this war-not just in the balance of military power, but also over the future of the strategically and symbolically important Crimea when US-made F-16 fighter jets finally enter Ukrainian skies. Adding advanced aircraft to the theater could prove to be the game-changer in theater for Ukraine desiring to wrest the peninsula back from Russia, said Frederik Mertens, Strategic Analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.
Mertens added that Ukraine has been “preparing the ground” for future air strikes by hitting Russian GBAD systems. A preparatory step is required so that the F-16s can accomplish more when they finally begin to arrive. The first of them could be in Ukraine in weeks, if not days, with Denmark, Norway, and Belgium among those committing the fighter jets. The training for Ukrainian pilots is already underway, with Denmark, the US, the UK, France, and Romania so far supporting the program.
But Mertens warned against exaggerating the impact of a handful of jets, underlining that Crimea is “vulnerable” to attacks from the F-16s. There, the resupply routes depend heavily on the Kerch bridge, making it a critical point of vulnerability for Russian forces. “If a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here — and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD on Crimea is dealt with,” Mertens noted.
Ukraine has already proved that it is capable of messing up the Russian activities in Crimea through several successful attacks. The sea drones have made the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol practically inoperable, forcing a major relocation of its ships. This confirmation came from Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, citing that most of the combat-ready ships had moved to the Sea of Azov and Novorossiisk as a result of the extensive damage the Crimean base had incurred.
First of all, Crimea has strategic importance, not merely a symbolic role. It is a territorial bridge to the occupied southern territories of Ukraine, creating an important supply route to the positions of the military of Ukraine. Ukraine has also conducted several meaningful strikes on the key infrastructure: the Kerch Bridge and the Dzhankoi military base, substantially paralyzing Russian activities.
In addition to the F-16s, the US has also supplied Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, otherwise known as ATACMS, that could make Crimea “militarily worthless” for Russia. These advanced weapons have already seen use, further encumbering Russia’s ability to maintain its grip on the region.
Innovative tactics by Ukraine have been critical, such as high-risk “wild weasel” missions to suppress Russian air defenses. Those missions involve attracting enemy antiaircraft defenses to fire at them with radars, in turn allowing Ukrainian pilots to strike back with US-made AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, or HARMs. First devised by the US Air Force during the Vietnam War, the tactic has been adapted to Ukrainian needs despite headaches integrating Western technology into Soviet-era jets.
The capabilities of Ukraine are expected to be further enriched by F-16s. With proper weaponry, Ukraine can counter the domination by Russia in the region with the help of these aircraft, said Vice-Admiral Neizhpapa, with a tone of hope. “The northwestern part of the Black Sea, particularly the corridor for civilian ships, will be almost 100% secure,” he said.
To that end, as the conflict drags on with more sophisticated US weaponry and Ukrainian innovative tactics being brought in, this could very well prove to be the turning point in the battle for the Crimea region so crucially important both strategically and symbolically for Ukraine and Russia alike.