As it works to maintain its air dominance over near-peer competitors, the USAF must navigate a complex landscape of budgetary, technological, and strategic considerations. The fiscal year 2023 proposal has been at the center of debate over the retirement of older F-22 Raptors and what that means for the Next Generation Air Dominance program.
The Government Accountability Office recently blasted the USAF budget proposal for lacking comprehensive data on the effects of retirement of the F-22 Block 20 variants currently used in training. As GAO has pointed out, the proposal had no information on alternative training or benefits that could accrue from upgrading such aircraft. Northrop Grumman provided an estimate of at least $3.3 billion to bring the Block 20 aircraft up to the Block 30/35 standard and a period of about 15 years to complete the task. For its part, the USAF decided this was adequate data for its purposes; the GAO recommended more detailed data for their decisions.
The National Defense Authorization Act forbids a reduction in F-22 inventory, which will complicate retirement plans for the Block 20 aircraft. The Secretary of the Air Force shall, before any reduction is effected, present a detailed plan to Congress.
The NGAD program that once heralded the future of US air superiority now hangs in uncertain balance. It has faced budget constraints, technological hurdles, and evolving concepts of air dominance that have brought reconsiderations within the USAF. Even the Air Force Chief of Staff, General David Allvin, and Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall, have expressed their doubts about the program’s continuity. The technology intended to provide a sixth-generation replacement fighter jet was to have a winner selected this year between Lockheed Martin and Boeing. However, the USAF’s commitment to the program is now in question.
Among the major factors in the reevaluation process are the high costs of the NGAD, estimated at $300 million per unit, and investments in the F-35, B-21 Raider, and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile programs. Besides, new technologies and the acceleration of drones are also forcing a shift in air dominance strategies.
While the USAF has been entertaining upgrading the F-22 fleet to keep it relevant, there are concerns these upgrades might result in an obsolete fighter upon delivery. The F-22 fleet was due for a $22 billion upgrade over the next decade that would keep the fighter in service until the 2040s. Upgrades will enhance avionics, stealth capability, and overall survivability for 142 F-22s. The time and resources that these upgrades would take are better used for more advanced fighters, however.
Some experts believe that investments in cheaper unmanned systems and space-based weapons platforms would be more appropriate for strategic needs in the future. Spending billions of dollars on sophisticated and expensive warplanes can significantly undermine the effectiveness of the US military, mainly regarding space.
Heather Penney, in an October 2021 paper for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, encouraged an extension of life for some legacy aircraft to maintain the combat infrastructure. She went on to say, however, that the use of legacy aircraft is not viable in contested battlespaces, and that fifth-generation aircraft should be bought as new aircraft to replace legacy aircraft in the combat fleet. He suggested that, while the F-15EX may fill a gap in near-term inventory, it is not survivable against modern threats, and funds are better spent on developing a fighter that meets contemporary threats.
Even with the delays and cuts to the program, accelerating F-35A procurement is not a fantasy. The US finally approved full-rate production of the F-35B stealth fighter last week, four years behind schedule. It might not be possible for the USAF to acquire as many F-35s as planned, but the 2025 budget cuts will still facilitate some modernization.
Confronting these challenges, the extension of the service life of the USAF F-22 fleet cannot be overemphasized, even with its overwhelming pitfalls. The future of US air dominance hangs in the balance as the Air Force fights through these tumultuous times.