In what marks a significant development in strengthening Ukraine’s aerial power, Denmark and the Netherlands signed an agreement to provide F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv days after the United States gave the green light for their transfer. How soon that can happen will depend on how soon pilots and ground crews are trained and facilities for maintaining the jets are put in place. Precisely how many F-16s are sent out will depend on how many jets are available in the arsenals of the Dutch and Danish and also when they get F-35 joint strike fighters from the U.S.
The U.S. Department of Defense has announced a training program that will begin in Arizona in October, to complement European efforts underway in Denmark and Romania. Training times are variable, but there’s little question that it will take some time to integrate F-16s into Ukraine’s fighting force. The critical question remains: What does it mean for these jets to take up the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression?
The F-16s will provide much different air capabilities, replacing losses suffered during the war. Going into the war, the Ukrainian Air Force was equipped with approximately seventy fighter aircraft, including some older-generation Mig-29 and Su-27 jets. While additional Mig-29s, sourced from Poland and Slovakia, were supplied to Ukraine, at least thirty-two fighters have been lost. To date, Russian aircraft have had the apparent decisive advantage, having manned aircraft like the Su-35S and Mig-31BM with advanced radar systems and long-range missiles. Equipped with more powerful radars, the F-16s will enable Ukrainian pilots to detect and engage Russian aircraft at a much greater range using AIM-120 AMRAAMs.
Moreover, the F-16s would offer a platform that can operate with an extensive array of advanced weapon systems, from the AN/ALQ-131 electronic countermeasures pod to stand-off kinetic weapons such as the Small Diameter Bomb and AGM-158 JASSM. This compatibility with Western weaponry thus opens the door for NATO countries to, in turn, provide these systems to Ukraine sometime in the future.
However, the extent to which F-16s can put their mark operationally is considered limited due to extensive ground-based anti-air defenses in the conflict zone. Russia has finally deployed the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, a game-changing element of any opposing air force, especially for Ukrainian jets, including the F-16. Ukrainian pilots will again have to operate at low altitudes to avoid detection, putting them at a disadvantage in engagements against Russian fighters operating at higher altitudes.
Besides F-16s, Sweden has just delayed its plan to deliver Gripen jets to Ukraine to ensure smooth delivery in case of F-16s. The Saab-developed Gripen is considered agile, cost-effective, and easy to maintain. It is capable of flying over Mach 2 and at altitudes up to 50,000 feet. The more advanced Gripen E aviation provides better avionics with extended electronic warfare and interoperability with NATO systems.
France has also announced the delivery of Mirage 2000-5 fighter aircraft to Ukraine. Single SAFRAN/SNECMA M53-P2 turbofan-powered jets have an operational range of close to 1,000 miles with internal fuel. The Mirage 2000-5 features advanced radar systems and can carry an array of weapons, including the MBDA MICA-RF/EM air-to-air missile.
While the addition of these advanced aircraft will no doubt enhance the air capabilities of Ukraine, the addition of numerous models introduces logistical complexity. The F-16s and the Mirages would need huge investments in training and maintenance infrastructure to keep the aircraft flying. The advantage of a diversified fleet with the ability to employ a wide range of Western weaponry cannot be understated.
This modernization of the air force in Ukraine will be of long-term value in training pilots, and ground crews, including logisticians, in how to operate and maintain such advanced aircraft. This effort aligns with NATO’s objective of integrating Ukraine into the Alliance and setting conditions for future interoperability, enhancing defense capabilities.