Hitherto, the Turkey government had been showcasing its indigenous fifth-generation fighter, the TAI TF Kaan, as one of the big changes in its defense strategy and geopolitical orientation. Manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries, also known as TAI, along with BAE Systems, the advanced stealth aircraft is envisioned to replace the aging F-16 fleet of the Turkish Air Force. The deal comes days after strained relations between Turkey and the West after it was excluded from the F-35 program in 2019.
Indeed, the TF Kaan-or the TF-X-is a fifth-generation stealth-capable fighter jet with advanced avionics and a potent electronic warfare suite. The aircraft features a twin-engine configuration powered by two F110-GE-132 engines, a maximum speed of Mach 1.8, a service ceiling of 55,000 feet, a combat radius of 600 nautical miles, and is armed with a bevy of missiles for air-to-air and air-to-ground purposes.
This pivot away from the Western alliances has been a long time coming. The refusal to sell Patriot missile batteries to Turkey by the Obama Administration and the subsequent purchase of Russian S-300 air defense systems sealed important turning points. These actions also happened to be against the interoperability requirements of NATO, further worsening relations. The failed coup plot against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his sanguinary crackdown afterward widened the rift.
In this respect, Turkey has furthered the space between itself and NATO; it has sought closer ties with both Russia and Iran. This geopolitical shift is well-embedded in the development of the TF Kaan, raising serious concerns about interoperability within NATO and broader implications for regional security.
But financial hurdles overshadow the TF-X program: with high, roaring inflation and external debt of almost US$476 billion, Turkey seeks foreign partners to share the financial load. According to defense analyst Ozgur Eksi, the program would inevitably face financial difficulties because of the country’s economic situation. Interest has been shown by Pakistan and Azerbaijan in joining the program, with Pakistan possibly bringing technological know-how and Azerbaijan offering financial support.
The government of Turkey hopes to see the TF-X fly by the end of 2023 when the Turkish Republic celebrates its centennial. TAI is scheduled to deliver 20 Block 10 TF-Xs to the Air Force in 2028 at an approximate unit price of US$100 million. For the overall program, export potential will be key, in particular for those countries that cannot buy Western-made aircraft for political reasons.
On its part, BAE Systems has won a multi-billion dollar contract for its part in this project, known as the TF-X program. As part of this contract, the partnership is expected to have a preliminary design finalized by 2020; there are, however likely to be further contracts after this point to ramp up production. The Turkish government also began seeking bidders for the engines, with bids tendered by Rolls-Royce and Eurojet, as well as local entrants.
TF Kaan epitomizes the drive of Turkey to assume independence in defense capability and geopolitical influence. As the aircraft approaches its maiden flight, the world will be watching closely, aware that this development could reshape dynamics within NATO and beyond.