As the war in Ukraine grinds on, the fears of the Pentagon about Russian military prowess have dramatically shrunk. Moscow’s resort to Iranian drones in its brutal assault against Ukrainian civilians, an inability to establish air superiority above Ukraine, and shortages of vital components from computer chips all point to a weakened state. Moscow boasts of world-beating aircraft in the shape of the MiG-41, supposedly equipped with “laser weaponry,” now seem fanciful rather than credible. A massive burden on the Russian aviation industry over the war in Ukraine sees it trailing Washington in the effort to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet.
The case of China, however, cannot be so easily dismissed, as it is a country that has traditionally copied the Russian aircraft industry. With huge financial reserves, a position as the world’s largest manufacturer, and exponential technological growth rates, China is easily positioned to mount a credible challenge to American hegemony in military aerospace. Last month, China underscored its engineering capabilities by becoming the first nation to land on the far side of the Moon—unmanned for the second time in five years.
The sixth-generation fighters are being developed to ensure that both the U.S. and China remain leading in the air. These advanced warplanes are very vital in any defense system in offering long-range force projection and close air support to the ground troops. To maintain its superiority, the United States needs to up the rate of production of the sixth-generation system, especially in this age of artificial intelligence.
The Chinese Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon” is a fifth-generation warplane and counterpart to the American F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Lightning II. Though of limited payload capacity, it would be able to function as a long-range supersonic strike aircraft or interceptor. Since the induction of the aircraft into service in 2017, it would have given China enough time to produce an estimated 150 J-20s, with the PLA Air Force receiving one jet every month. The size of this production is already sufficient that China can make up for qualitative deficiencies through sheer numbers, which potentially could be overwhelming to U.S. forces stationed within the Asian theater.
Experts believe that while the J-20 may not be a match for the F-22, it will certainly prove to be stiff competition for the F-35. The United States has been dogged by numerous issues surrounding the F-35 program, including delays, cost overruns, and other continuing problems that may impact the development of its replacement, the sixth-generation aircraft. The F-35 program, variously priced at $100 million a frame, will end up costing the taxpayer $1.3 trillion over its lifetime.
The sixth-generation fighter is an enormous leap forward, hosting both manned and unmanned aircraft technologies. Conceived by DARPA in 2014, the NGAD program envisions pilots taking the stick to interface with drone systems, advanced manned fighters, and a fleet of autonomous “loyal wingman” drones. The approach appears to break from conventional thinking, in which such a “family of systems” would be created rather than a fighter jet.
The problem is that tight budgetary constraints make it very difficult to develop a robust sixth-generation fighter capability. That means that only one of two programs can realistically remain on track: the NGAD or the F-35. The high operating cost of the F-35 is siphoning resources from the NGAD program. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin recently said the service is eyeing difficult choices in fiscal 2026 budget cuts, potentially including the NGAD rethink, due to an increased role unmanned systems will play in future air ops.
Nonetheless, with these two unknowns, Northrop Grumman has said only to be willing to do a sixth-generation fighter, the third going up against both Boeing and Lockheed Martin. The Northrop Grumman proposal could be based on the Advanced Tactical Fighter contender giant YF-23 Black Widow prototype that lost to Lockheed Martin’s YF-22 in that competition. The YF-23 was one high-speed performer in stealth design but was not as maneuverable as the YF-22.
A Northrop Grumman proposal for the Next Generation Tactical Aircraft would see a new version developed off the strengths of the YF-23, with newer computers and advanced weapon systems, stealthier skins, and powerful engines. It is also looking into tailless designs and optionally manned fighters, which might even include directed energy weaponry like lasers by the time sixth-generation fighters are fielded.
The United States has to overcome these challenges if it is to preserve its technological advantage in state-of-the-art fighter aircraft, as China is closing in on the process of rapidly advancing its sixth-generation fighter capabilities. The American NGAD “family of systems” could make its appearance by 2030 if the Pentagon and Congress provide the necessary funds and resources.