Leading scientists say the belief that humanity can overshoot the global warming targets and then fix the situation later with advanced technologies is a very dangerous myth. This so-called “overshoot myth” is deemed to be one of the biggest threats facing global stability and security.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, world leaders pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and to keep it “well below” 2°C. However, continued fossil fuel production and unprecedented greenhouse gas emissions have rendered these commitments increasingly unrealistic. Dr. James Dyke, Professor Sir Robert Watson, and Dr. Wolfgang Knorr argue that dangerous climate change is already upon us, and current net-zero plans are increasingly reliant on speculative, “science fiction” solutions.
Dr. Dyke, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, likened humanity’s inaction to “the proverbial frog in the heating pan of water.” He emphasized the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industry, transport, energy, and food systems, which collectively account for the majority of emissions. “Many current pledges suggest we can avoid dangerous climate change without making these reductions,” he noted. Instead, these plans propose overshooting warming targets and then deploying large-scale carbon dioxide removal technologies or geoengineering solutions to bring temperatures down by the century’s end.
Professor Watson, Emeritus Professor in Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia, warned that framing climate policy in terms of overshoot could have catastrophic impacts on food and water security, poverty, human health, and biodiversity. “The situation demands honesty and a change of course,” he stated.
The scientists also highlighted the risks associated with Earth system tipping points, which, once triggered, may not be reversible even if the overshoot is temporary. They stressed that natural carbon sinks cannot be relied upon to remove vast amounts of carbon dioxide in a warming world.
To address these challenges, the authors proposed four key actions: leaving fossil fuels in the ground, stopping financing for new oil and gas projects, focusing on immediate reductions in fossil fuel use, and basing policy on credible science and engineering. They argued that speculative carbon-removal approaches should be excluded from net zero plans and called for a radical rethinking of how economies and societies function.
Dr. Knorr of Lund University then mentioned that the overshoot of 1.5°C is very likely in very close proximity and that the Paris Agreement is already breached. He added that what needs to be done to save the planet must be done right now, not left to future generations.
This article from The Conversation pinpoints the urgency that the response to climate change is grounded in real-world actions now, rather than unproven technologies and over-the-horizon promises.