Since 2015, the US Congress has pumped $4.2 billion into the NGAD Program for the fifth-gen stealth fighter that would replace the prematurely discontinued F-22 Raptor. The objective of the NGAD is nothing less than to create a Sixth-Generation fighter and its technological ecosystem to extend air superiority into the future. There are four main areas of concentration for the program: propulsion, uncrewed systems, materials, and sensors. But despite this significant investment, it may be said by some commentators that the future of air dominance lies beyond the atmosphere.
However, the NGAD Program is more than about creating a new air superiority fighter jet. The U.S. Air Force envisions an entire technological innovation ecosystem that could result in a singular new warplane model or a combination of systems including manned, unmanned, optionally manned, cyber, and electronic. These configurations may be quite different from what many traditionally think of as a “fighter.”
As of June 2022, the NGAD Program requested $1.6 billion for the FY2023 budget and $2.3 billion for FY2024. This is projected to grow to approximately $11.7 billion from 2024-2027, with systems anticipated to be operational by the 2030s. However, a spate of recent articles has questioned the wisdom of such investment.
Critics say the Pentagon is missing the point with the focus on another generation of expensive aircraft-true future air dominance resides in space capability. With the United States Space Force up and running, war planners need to think differently. The goal should be space dominance, not air dominance. Hypersonic weapons platforms make stealth an ancillary concern, and future wars are likely to be fought at a distance. No Sixth-Generation warplane can detect or protect against hypersonic attacks as effectively as space systems.
Space-based defense systems offer a strategic high ground from which advanced early detection sensors can be permanently deployed to track hypersonic launches. Effective countermeasures against hypersonic attacks can also be mounted from space. In an age of constrained budgets and skepticism toward greater military spending, the Department of Defense must rethink its national defense strategies and the systems needed to implement them.
The Department of the Air Force FY 2025 Budget request is approximately $217.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion in FY 2024. The portion for the United States Air Force would be $188.1 billion, with several investments prominent in the modernization efforts, such as the NGAD Program. However, the highly critical space-based defense assumes an overall reduction in the United States Space Force budget request at $29.4 billion compared with that in FY 2024.
Finally, because the NGAD Program is a great investment in the future for maintaining air superiority, probably the future of defense will be in space. Thus, as the United States increasingly faces threats from hypersonic weapons and other advanced technologies, the offset taken by the United States should be from air dominance to space dominance.