For many years, the complex dynamics of nuclear arms control have been a prime focus of international military strategy and diplomacy. The world is grappling with the complexities of proliferation, trying to work out ways to manage and mitigate these threats historical and contemporary.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1968, is one cornerstone in arms control history. This milestone agreement, signed by the leading nuclear and non-nuclear powers, marked efforts to impede the spread of nuclear technology. For all its shortcomings, the NPT was an important Cold War-era achievement that set a precedent for international cooperation on the nonproliferation issue. Indeed, what made the treaty a success is that it made collaboration between nuclear and non-nuclear states possible, thus paving the way for future arms control agreements.
The origin of the NPT goes back to the early 1960s when the prospect of diffused technology of nuclear weapons became a matter of urgent concern. The science of nuclear fission and fusion was part of the literature available to the public, not just to governments alone. In 1964, five nations joined the nuclear club: the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and France. This proliferation raised many red flags among international legislators, who felt that the doctrine of deterrence may be destabilized if more countries especially those countries with volatile border disputes, acquired nuclear capabilities.
The development of the NPT was quite rocky. From an initial proposal by Ireland at a United Nations General Assembly meeting in 1961, serious negotiations did not begin until 1965 at the Geneva Disarmament Conference. U.S. negotiators had to balance the prevention of nuclear technology transfer with the desire to empower NATO allies. The idea of a nuclear NATO had been threatening to send the talks completely off the rails, but the United States opted for a workable treaty over this pet plan.
The 1968 finally signed treaty contained several major provisions designed to limit the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Nuclear signatories pledged not to transfer nuclear weapons or technology to other states, while non-nuclear states undertook not to develop or acquire such weapons. All signatories committed to the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA and undertook to cooperate in the development of peaceful nuclear technology. The treaty, although initially set for a 25-year duration with periodic reviews, remains the cornerstone of global arms control efforts.
Aside from its successes, there were serious shortcomings in the NPT. Two nuclear powers, the French and the Chinese, were not signatories to the agreement, nor were several non-nuclear states thought to be on the brink of reaching nuclear status, including India, Israel, and Pakistan. A nuclear test conducted by India in 1974 and another by Pakistan in 1983 underscored the treaty’s weakness in preventing new nuclear powers.
Nowadays, the nuclear bomb possesses the following nine countries: the United States, Russia, France and the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The global nuclear stockpile, although reduced from its Cold War peak of 60,000 weapons, still presents an incredible danger with nearly 13,000 weapons. The destructive power of modern arsenals is staggering: to put this in perspective, one U.S. nuclear-armed submarine carries warheads with seven times the destructive power of all bombs dropped during World War II, including the atomic bombs on Japan.
The geopolitical situation presently sees the three major nuclear powers of the United States, Russia building upon their arsenals in numbers and capability. A new nuclear arms race therefore is further increasing the possibility of a nuclear war. This calls for urgent and earnest arms control measures.
With the upcoming NATO Summit, it is without question that nuclear arms control will be one of the most important agenda items up for discussion. The role of NATO within an ever-more-nuclearized world would fall under the purview of various experts: Emma M. Ashford, Michael R. Carpenter, Camille Grand, Thomas Wright, Liana Fix, and Charles A. Kupchan. Titled the NATO Summit Preview, discussions will range from 9th to 11th July in Washington DC and look to address such issues as taking front and center stage in setting the course for global arms control.