In 2014, Sweden conducted its largest military mobilization since the Cold War under the firm conviction that a foreign submarine was operating illegally in the Stockholm archipelago. Analysts first believed the offending vessel was a Russian submarine, but the truth was much less exciting. After several reports, the Swedish navy spent almost $2 million hunting for what was later identified as a broken buoy.
At first, it was all about some radio signals that had been intercepted and were believed to be coming from a Russian submarine. But it was later discovered that those had been Sweden’s broadcasts to an off-course weather buoy. This was reported by Dagens Nyheter, citing a source familiar with the discovery details.
The Swedish government has kept the mistake quiet for four months and only wrote a 14-page report on the incident confidential. Stockholm, despite the mishap, has augmented its spending on defense. Sweden is not a member of NATO; however, it has joined the European Union’s economic sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense even derided Sweden for its widespread search, comparing it to the search for a character in a popular Swedish children’s book. The search drew 200 troops, stealth ships, and helicopters, yet it unearthed nothing but a mangled buoy in the end.
Apropos of it, there goes the related story: the Swedish diesel-electric submarine HSwMS Gotland has achieved nearly legendary status for having “sunk” the US carrier Ronald Reagan in an exercise that took place back in 2005. The episode is often cited as proof of the invulnerability of submarines and the vulnerability of aircraft carriers. A deeper look into what had happened sheds light on a different perspective.
The US Navy leased the Gotland between 2005 and 2007 for testing its stealth capabilities. The exercise in question was part of the December 2005 pre-deployment Joint Task Force Exercise 06-2, which included Carrier Strike Group 7, consisting of the Reagan, a Ticonderoga class cruiser, and three Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. This setup did not reflect a wartime carrier group, and most importantly the exercise was not anywhere close to being realistic.
The exercise was essentially to study the submarine’s characteristics, not ‘sink’ it. As Top Gun instructors allow students to ‘shoot them down’ for learning, the Navy probably had allowed the Gotland to get closer to enable studying its acoustic patterns. In reality, the submarine has a very meager probability of intercepting a carrier group in any act of combat. Carriers can operate in the deep ocean waters, while diesel-electric submarines like the Gotland are generally littoral assets.
Historical data backs this up as well. In World War II, for instance, there were fewer than ten underwater contacts between submarines and carriers despite millions of miles traveled. The use of a mobile dry dock to send the Gotland to and from the US further brings home that it is not, by any means, an open ocean asset.
Such exercises have unrealistic constraints on the sub and the carrier to bring them close together; that is, it bypasses the complex and sometimes hard phase of initial detection, and at that point, it’s quite easy for the hider to reach the firing point. A real-life carrier would be loaded with dozens of ships and ASW helicopters, so the situation is highly improbable.
As much as submarines present a grave threat, the sensational stories more often than not miss the complications and realities of naval warfare. The $2 million Swedish Navy hunt for a broken buoy and the Gotland’s exercise victory reiterate that context and military realism matter.