For the ongoing Ukraine conflict, Russia may now be paying the heaviest price, with Western sanctions drying up investments the state can channel into development. The single fifth-generation jet fighter Su-75 Checkmate is an ambitious undertaking; the Russian airplane has been delayed and is encountering lots of challenges. It was first unveiled with much fanfare at the MAKS 2021 international airshow and cited to be a far more economy-class option compared with similar-class Western aircraft, such as the Swedish Jämtland Gripen and Lockheed Martin F-35. So far, this project has not moved past the manufacture of mock-ups and computer graphics.
Analysts have said that some critical components that Russia would have used in the Su-75 have been significantly restricted in this Western embargo and, ultimately, have hurt Russia’s ability to acquire and manufacture such components. “The sanctions have impeded Russia’s ability to get key items, like precision machining machinery and semiconductors needed for the advanced avionics system,” says a defense analyst Maya Carlin. All of this well can be a decisive factor that discourages buyers because if Russia is not in a position to ensure the supply of spare parts and provide maintenance, this will jeopardize the planned operability of the aircraft.
The saga with the Su-75 has already pushed back the timeline: Rostec Chief Sergey Chemezov was forced to recommend that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s production would start in 2027, two years off projected production. As a consequence of the sanctions, several international deals are now off the table-for example, Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia were due to buy the Su-35 warplane.
But Russia remains bullish on the export potential of the Su-75, with a recent promotional video touting UAE, Indian, Vietnamese, and Argentinian pilots as representative of potential customers. That is, of course, until the situation in Ukraine escalated into a more severe phase and the performance of the Russian aircraft was questioned. To date, Russia has not achieved air supremacy, and perhaps if the advanced Su-35 aircraft of these countries’ governments are lost, they will not be interested in investing in new models such as the Checkmate.
Valuable lessons that can be drawn from the Su-57 were put to good use in the design of the Su-75: it is powered by a single engine producing 24,000 lbs of thrust in dry mode and 39,000 lbs in afterburner section. Capable of carrying 7.4 tons of payload, the jet is expected to be launched with an assistant to reach a top speed of Mach 1.8 and have a range of 1,700 kilometers without fuel tanks mounted externally. It will also come with an internal weapons bay for missiles and high-wing lift efficiency.
Three new versions have been introduced for the Su-75: single-seater, two-seater, and unmanned versions. The newly designed hull will provide low radar visibility, and the addition of the cabin for two-seater variants is just like the Su-30SM. However, the unmanned version lacks a cockpit, just like the single-seater.
Yet for all these advances, there is a great deal of skepticism. One former George W. Bush National Security Council staffer was cited as saying he didn’t believe the Su-75 would ever be produced in large numbers because of the massive disincentive Russian behavior in Ukraine has created. For its part, 19FortyFive wrote it off before any real comparison to the American F-35 Lightning II could be made, calling Russian claims “grossly overstated” and “utterly misleading.”
Whereas the Su-75 might seem to provide a cheaper alternative to the F-35, its future is quite uncertain. It will likely be very restrictive in development and export, depending on the real share of Su-57-based aircraft, and with Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine.