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Thursday, September 19, 2024

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Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter: A Game-Changer or Overhyped Asset in the Ukraine Conflict?

The war in Ukraine has seen the deployment of top-of-the-range military technology. The highlight has been Russia’s new Su-57 Felon stealth fighter, with the deadly R-37M long-range air-to-air missile just acquired by Russia. Several days ago, one of the Ukrainian fighter pilots described the R-37M as “the most dangerous weapon” that the Russian AF is equipped with. He highlighted the high potential of those missiles.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed on January 9 that Russia is “almost certainly” using its Su-57 Felon in a manner that keeps perceived risks to the aircraft to a minimum. These stealth fifth-generation jets are probably restricted to Russian territory and launch long-range missiles into Ukraine to avoid detection and engagement by Ukrainian air defense systems.

Russian media have reported the use of the Su-57 in the Ukraine war since May 2022. Of this, the latest assessment of the UK MoD concurred, saying that Su-57s have been operating out of the zone of active destruction by the enemy air defense systems.

The R-37M missile, also identified as AA-13 in the West or RVV-BD, is a long-range air-to-air missile developed for the combat of highly maneuverable and supersonic aircraft at ranges of over 300 kilometers. It has been developed through Vympel, a Russian research and production company, as the next evolution of the Soviet-era R-37 AAM. The missile was designed for the MiG-31M Foxhound aircraft and has been upgraded for installation on board Su-30, Su-35, and the planned Su-57 fighters.

It is powered by a dual-pulse solid propellant rocket motor. It is guided by an onboard dual-band active radar seeker and an inertial navigation system updated with mid-course data from the launch aircraft. It is claimed that the missile can engage a target presenting a 54-square-foot radar cross-section at a range of about 40 kilometers and beyond. It is also said to be permitted to carry a nuclear warhead to kill larger aircraft or missile formations.

Since the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) started using the R-37M against Ukrainian fighter pilots last summer, they have hit a much more alert stage. The long-range nature of the missile, although being of much lesser threat when fired from inside Russian borders, does impose great danger. As Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot ´Juice´ explained, Ukrainian pilots have managed to devise some tactics to maximize threats, but these tactics have curtailed their original effectiveness.

This makes the duo of Su-57 and R-37M missiles highly lethal when their stealth features combine. Western experts assert the missile is constructed for the very purpose of defeating AEW&C aircraft and other high-value assets. According to reports, Polish and Romanian AWACS on around-the-clock alert modes failed to notice the incursion of the Russian fifth-generation aircraft into the airspace, which eventually resulted in the Ukrainian Su-27 falling to an R-37M missile launched by the Su-57.

The fighter, however, never saw frontline combat. Assumptions have been made by Western intelligence and aviation analysts that the fact that Russia was so reluctant to deploy the Su-57 over the most hostile airspace led them to conclude that Moscow has little faith in its stealth capabilities. According to Mike Dahm, a former intelligence officer with the US Navy: “Certainly, the optics for the potential customers and the reputation of the Russian defense industry played into this.”.

The Su-57 becomes the first in a line of fifth-generation Russian fighters, though many of its true capabilities had been scrutinized by analysts previously. Among them are doubts from some analysts if the aircraft even meets the key criteria since it lacks many of the key attributes deemed important for an aircraft of that type. Heavy modifications are still ongoing with the Su-57; Russia is yet to do so in a manner that allows for efficient production of them in large quantities.

There has been a low deployment of aircraft over Ukraine—indicating that Russia does not want reputational damage or to lose sensitive technology. Justin Bronk, an airpower and technology expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), says the Su-57’s absence from frontline combat is indicative of a lack of confidence in its stealth properties.

Both the Su-57 and R-37M missiles are significant strides in Russian harnessing of military technology, but their effect on the Ukraine conflict has been minimal. The lackadaisical deployment involving the Su-57 is primarily due to serious reservations about the aircraft’s potential in warfare and the resultant loss should it fail to live up to expectations. Now, the real effectiveness of these advanced systems will be critically scrutinized by experts and military analysts concerning the conflict.

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