The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has starkly exposed the vulnerabilities of the Russian military and its arsenal. The use of Western weapon technologies, substantially stronger than theirs, has been quite matter-of-fact in nature and has forced Moscow to complete work quickly on new armaments reinforcing the military. One such ambitious project is the MiG-41 fighter jet, a stealth sixth-generation aircraft.
The MiG-41, otherwise known as the PAK DP, is supposedly going to take to the skies for the first time next year. Its design incorporates the ability to reach incredible velocities, possibly surpassing Mach 4, or more than 3,000 miles per hour, and to fly at extremely high altitudes. The Russian Aerospace Forces are trying to develop an aircraft with that combination of speed and altitude that can penetrate non-permissive airspace-a refrain common to major air forces elsewhere. For example, the U.S. The Air Force B-21 Raider bomber was designed to carry both conventional and nuclear payloads against enemy defenses.
Either by an aircraft that flies at such a speed the enemy’s interceptors are incapable of catching it, as was in the case of the SR-71 Blackbird, or it should be fitted with advanced stealth technology like the F-35 Lightning II. Combining both in one aircraft is a difficult challenge, but the Russian aerospace industry looks set to pursue this with the MiG-41.
Yet the skepticism is somewhat earned given the history of Russian “wonder weapons.” The Su-57 Felon, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, is still far behind in production and has played virtually no role in Ukraine. Likewise, years in the making, the T-14 Armata main battle tank faces serious production and cancellation problems due to persistent technological malfeasance.
The war in Ukraine has also impacted Russia’s conventional military capability, notably operations in the Arctic. In the opening stages of the war, all Northern Fleet assets were deployed either to the Mediterranean or Black Seas. Included were the Marshal Ustinov-one of only a few surviving Slava-class cruisers and three large landing ships. While no warships or submarines of the Northern Fleet have been sunk, several Arctic ground units have been destroyed.
The 61st Independent Naval Brigade and the 80th Arctic Motor Rifle Brigade have also been fighting in Ukraine. It is said that a battalion tactical group of the 200th was almost wiped clean, with 645 of its 648 servicemen killed. Besides, 18 T-80BVM tanks used by the 200th have been confirmed lost in combat.
Sanctions and export controls have also imposed a further significant burden on the Russian defense industry. In the near term, the Northern Fleet is set to take delivery of some new assets including another Borei-class SSBN, refitted Akula SSNs, Severodvinsk SSGNs, and next-generation Lada-class SSKs. Funding and developmental problems have also dogged the ambitious Lider-class destroyer. Sanctions are already having an impact on the Russian economy, with imports from sanctioning countries so far collapsing by over 50% compared to the same period last year.
Despite these challenges, however, Russia has shown resilience by sourcing goods from non-sanctioning countries and increasing oil sales to India. The defense sector, being far less dependent on imports than other branches of industry, is nonetheless heavily funded. At the same time, high-tech asset production is extremely problematic given the export controls and brain drain. For instance, due to a lack of foreign parts, the leading manufacturer of armored vehicles in Russia was forced to stop producing tanks altogether.
Even the land-based conventional forces in Russia are weakened at present over the Arctic and the ability to challenge territorially has reduced. That being said, the naval elements of the Northern Fleet, especially the strategic submarine fleet, remain fairly potent. The impact of these sanctions on the Russian defense industry will eventually play a role in deciding the strength of their Arctic capabilities. Precision munitions, which were critically dependent on Western components, could, on the other hand, be harder to come by and thus may source Russia’s offensive measures against Arctic NATO allies.
Given the advances in the MiG-41 project, it would be appropriate to see whether Russia can do an encore on its problems and emerge with a high-speed, stealth-capable interceptor. The stakes are high; the world is watching its move with bated breath.