Less than a century ago, the world seemed to be at the edge of an emerging, relentless climate crisis, where rising global warming increased the stakes of extreme weather events amidst changing climate conditions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, human activities have most definitely influenced the pace and extent of climate change since the Industrial Revolution.
Based on the AR6 of the IPCC, published in 2021, since 1850, the global average surface temperature grew by 1.07 °C up until 2019, and then human activities have contributed to an average rise in temperatures globally of between 0.8 to 1.2 °C from preindustrial times.
The IPCC AR6 projected a series of global climate predictions based on five greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Assuming greenhouse gas emissions would rise for the remainder of the 21st century, then the high-emission scenario predicted the mean surface temperature increase would be about 3.3–5.7 °C (5.9–10.2 °F) by 2100.
It was also noted in the report that between 1901 and 2018, there was a rise in the global average sea level of some 20 cm. Under increasing emission scenarios, the average level of the sea could be as high as 63–101 cm by 2100.
According to a new study, led by Newcastle University and the Met Office, this climate change will lead to an increase in compound extremes of strong winds and heavy rainfall during extreme winter storms in the UK and Ireland. “Our work shows that such compound extremes will occur more frequently as our climate warms and likely bring more severe impacts,” said Dr. Colin Manning, the study’s lead author.
Another study conducted by the research team led by Potsdam geoscientist Prof. Dr. Martin H. Trauth now discovered early warning signals for climate tipping points. Several sediment cores extracted from the Chew Bahir Basin in southern Ethiopia were evaluated, thereby acting as a “record” for 620 000 years of East African climate history. Results showed that, towards the end of the African Humid Period, strong dry and wet events alternated with a periodicity of ca. 1,000 years before a dry climate prevailed 5,000 yr ago.
The clearest example of climate tipping points in recent geological history is the change from the African Humid Period to dry conditions in North Africa. These tipping points occur when small perturbations trigger a large, nonlinear response in the system, shifting the climate into some other state, usually dramatic in terms of the biosphere.
More for you:
- Global warming | Definition, Causes, Effects, Solutions, & Facts | Britannica.
- Intensification of combined wind-rain extremes in the UK and Ireland by climate change.
- Flicker, then the tip: Study identifies early warning signals for the end of the African humid period.