The unstoppable rise in global temperatures, further fueled by climate change with the El Niño phenomenon, is pushing military operations worldwide into uncharted territory. According to recent reports from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, NASA, and NOAA, April 2024 seemed to be the warmest April on record, reaching an average surface air temperature of 15.03°C. Such a value is 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average and 0.14°C higher than the previous record set in April 2016.
These temperature anomalies have impacts everywhere. “The high number of extreme weather and climate events, including record daily and monthly temperatures, are more likely in a warmer world,” said WMO climate expert Alvaro Silva. This rise in extreme weather is a civilian concern but also a serious operational challenge for military forces around the world.
Military readiness is being tested throughout South America and Europe, as both experienced their record-warmest and second-warmest April on record, respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent reached its smallest extent on record for April, which affects training and operational logistics in areas that are typically covered by snow during this time of the year. Snow cover was below average on both the Eurasia and North American continents, though regions of eastern Russia were above average.
The global sea surface temperature for April 2024 reached an average of 21.04°C, the highest on record for the month. This sustained oceanic heat is significant as it feeds more heat and moisture into the atmosphere, thereby intensifying the conditions. “The sea surface temperature in several ocean basins, including in the tropical belt, continues to record high,” Silva said while pointing to continued challenges for operations at sea and coastal defense strategies.
The extremes of heatwaves also spanned across much of Asia, with temperatures above 40°C for weeks running in such places as Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. These conditions are quite exhausting for military personnel in these regions-from degrading troops’ endurance to equipment functionality. Repeated heatwaves throughout April and into early May saw the India Meteorological Department issue multiple advisories across the country for safeguarding public health and that of military personnel.
The operational consequence reaches agriculture and infrastructure, where crop destruction not only reduces yields but also affects food security and supply chains. Schools were closed due to the hazardous heat levels in Bangladesh and Thailand factor indirectly influenced the availability of young recruits and general socio-economic stability.
The ocean has also continued to break heat records relentlessly for more than a year, and 2024 is continuing on pace with 2023. “There’s no ambiguity about the data,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Understanding the detailed physical mechanisms that are at the root of such temperature records will be essential for improving climate models and, hence, the forecast of further developments-again, a crucially important endeavor for military strategic planning.
The United States is in the process of gearing up for a scorching summer, as NOAA’s seasonal outlook favors above-average temperatures across much of the country. Military installations and operations will have to bear the brunt of the oncoming heat, as the first heatwave of the year has already started in portions of the South, with blistering temperatures forecasted from Texas to Florida.
The year 1976 recorded the last colder-than-average year on Earth, revealing how long-term temperatures have been ticking upward. At the same time, even as El Niño conditions may subside, the warming influence is likely to survive and keep on affecting global land and ocean temperatures. This unabated heat will pose a strategic challenge in terms of adaptive measures that military forces need to take on and plan robustly to maintain their operational readiness in this increasingly turbulent climate.