With the down-select of the Bell V-280 Valor in the US Army’s Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft program, at least a clearer view is coming into sight concerning the way ahead for Army aviation. The venerable Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk will nonetheless continue to form a critical part of the fleet for many years to come. He drove the point home emphatically in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee: “For the next 40 to 60 years, I see us continuing to incrementally improve the Black Hawk fleet.”
The Army therefore faces a very prickly dilemma: how to introduce the advanced V-280 Valor with its promise of faster speeds and greater maneuverability on contested battlefields while maintaining and upgrading the existing Black Hawk fleet. For example, open questions include the mix of V-280s and UH-60s, international demand for both types of helicopters, and what upgrades are needed so Black Hawk will remain relevant.
The current Army Acquisition Objective for the UH-60 Black Hawk is 2,135 aircraft. That will go down, as the Army determines how many Black Hawks will be replaced by FLRAA. So far, senior leaders like McConville have said the service is not doing a one-for-one replacement. Doug Bush, the Army’s head of acquisition, said more clarity on the mix will come as the service heads through fiscal 2025 budget planning.
The more definitive estimate for the new aircraft’s AAO will come with the FLRAA milestone B decision next year. JJ Gertler, a senior analyst with the Teal Group, noted that plans for how quickly FLRAA is ramping up production will have a significant effect on AAO calculations for both fleets. “If we’re getting FLRAA at 30 or 40 per year, that doesn’t make a significant dent right away,” he said.
Another factor is the disposition of the new aircraft. In as much as the Army National Guard flies more than 40 percent of the Black Hawk fleet, its contribution to reaching FLRAA will be so important. The conventional wisdom in the Hill treats legislation that would push legacy equipment onto the Guard or Reserve components with suspicion. Where the fleet and pleasing Black Hawk-producing state legislators are concerned, that is not necessarily a bad disposition.
Production-line maintenance does not depend on US Army needs alone. Over 30 foreign countries operate the system today, and new buys are still happening. For example, the US State Department approved the sale of 40 UH-60M Black Hawks to Australia under a $1.95 billion agreement. Bush is hoping that continued strong foreign military sales will help keep the production line going strong well into the next decades.
The unknown per-unit cost of FLRAA and the logistics burden of operating a mixed fleet will be key considerations in the decision processes for international customers. As Gertler pointed out, it certainly will impact the decisions that potential customers make when FLRAA becomes available.
Regardless of the forecasted Black Hawk numbers, the Army needs to have a plan to keep the fleet airworthy and relevant against emerging threats. The Army and Sikorsky inked a five-year deal for 120 H-60 Black Hawk helicopters in a deal worth about $2.3 billion, with an option for a further 135 aircraft. In all, Sikorsky is geared toward the delivery of the last aircraft in this lot by 2026, and prepared for yet another possible multiyear contract, said Sikorsky CEO and president Paul Lemmo. Upgrades are also due, such as General Electric’s Improved Turbine Engine Program. The T901 engine manufactured by GE had been widely regarded as the front-runner to replace Sikorsky’s T700 model in UH-60 Black Hawks and AH-64 Apaches. Bush said the company was seeing delays because of “quality control” with parts coming from sub-vendors, and it has slowed all of its integration plans.
It also is investing in a potential modular open system architecture for the Black Hawk line, as well as unmanned capabilities. The latter was demonstrated at Project Convergence 2021 and 2022. “Lemmo also underscored ongoing discussions about future fleet upgrades indication, he seemed to make, that a commitment had been made to keep the Black Hawk relevant for years to come.”.
These are complex decisions, but the likely future Army aviation fleet will continue to balance advanced new aircraft with upgraded legacy systems for readiness and capability decades into the future.