The US Air Force continues to face significant challenges in its ongoing effort to retire the aging fleet of A-10 Warthogs, amidst requirements that balance operational needs in the present with modernization in the future. The Government Accountability Office has indicated that DOD and the Air Force lack comprehensive information about the full implications of retiring the A-10 fleet, including capability gaps and strategies for mitigation.
The A-10 is renowned for close air support but also performs other missions that are valuable to ongoing operations and to Combatant Commander plans. The Air Force has taken several actions to mitigate possible adverse effects of the divestment of the A-10 fleet. However, since the missions executed by the A-10 are not well-defined, that means the Air Force has not defined any capacity or capability gap that could result in its retirement.
The GAO’s analysis showed that the cost estimate for the fiscal year 2015 Air Force divestment proposal partially met best practices for comprehensiveness and minimally met best practices for being well-documented and accurate. It did not meet best practices for credibility. This shortage of a reliable cost estimate calls into question whether the Air Force can develop alternatives to effectively achieve budget targets.
Senator Mark Kelly, too, has been quite vocal about maintaining the A-10 fleet, even successfully pushing for a prohibition against retiring the A-10s in the Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act. Close air support advocate Kelly said, “Keeping the full A-10 fleet flying for the next year is important to our national security as we work to ensure the Air Force has the capability to accomplish this mission in the years to come.” adding that keeping the full A-10 fleet flying in the next year is important to the national defense while the service works to ensure the Air Force has the required capability to accomplish the close-air support mission in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, despite those efforts, the Senate Armed Services Committee has pushed out a 2023 NDAA that favors the Air Force’s plans to divest 21 A-10s at Fort Wayne Air National Guard Base in Indiana, replacing those aircraft with F-16s. It could be the first break in a more than decade-long stalemate between the Air Force and lawmakers over how many A-10s the service can retire.
The Air Force contends that it was designed during the Cold War and is neither able nor agile enough to survive in a high-end conflict against major adversaries with advanced air defenses. According to Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown: “The A-10 is a great platform for a permissive environment, but I don’t see very many permissive environments that we’re going to roll into in the future.”
The Air Force continues to modernize its fleet, with two F-35 squadrons scheduled to replace A-10C Thunderbolt II attack planes at Georgia’s Moody Air Force Base in fiscal 2029. Such a move is a footprint of the Pentagon’s shift from focusing on counterterrorism operations to military competition.
The decision has been hailed by lawmakers in Georgia, with Sen. Jon Ossoff calling it a major step forward in strengthening and sustaining Moody Air Force Base for decades to come. For Rep. Austin Scott, meanwhile, this just amplifies Moody’s decades-tenured leading role in defending the nation.
The Air Force also plans to buy more F-35A fighter jets and EC-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft, and it will expedite the acquisition of two prototype E-7 Wedgetail aircraft to replace the older E-3 Sentry fleet.
The difficult choices the Air Force makes have to balance the sustainment of current operational capabilities with investments in future technologies and platforms to meet emerging threats.