The UAV drones have now become game-changers in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and have transformed the battlefield in unparalleled ways. From the lowly, $500 drones to sophisticated long-range UAVs, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have used them to gain a tactical upper hand.
However, drones have a history, at least of military use, back to World War One. The scale and organization of their deployment in Ukraine mark a significant evolution. Once specialists, the functions of drones are now integral to military operations. Nearly every fighting brigade in Ukraine boasts an assault drone company; reconnaissance drones come in small numbers in most units.
The Ukrainian government is planning to manufacture one million FPV drones in 2024, compared with artillery shells supplied by the whole European Union over the past year. Such drones fitted with high-spec cameras are capable of showing real-time video feeds to their operators, allowing them to locate their enemy targets from above.
Larger reconnaissance drones are operated by specialist crews from positions further back from the front line. With high-powered cameras, the drones peer deep into enemy territory and then relay targets to commanders via secure messengers-their coordinates entered on Kropyva, a digital map aggregating data on Russian targets.
Commanders then call in with the best way to hit it, using artillery and drones, while balancing between both. Where artillery would produce an explosive punch so much more powerful, drones are much more precise than cannons, especially against moving targets. The buzz of drone propellers has become a dreary harbinger of an attack on soldiers.
The proliferation of drones has pushed heavy machinery such as tanks many kilometers away from the front line. It put the infantrymen under a never-ending threat from FPVs and bomb-dropping drones. This made movement and reinforcement tough.
In a war of attrition, cost efficiency becomes the most decisive factor. Drones are usually significantly cheaper and more precise compared to artillery shells. Drone technology works best, though, in combination with other weaponry. Even the experienced FPV drone pilots themselves admit dependence on infantry and artillery in holding the front line.
But long-range UAVs have also been used to equally great effect in Ukraine-Russia, homing in on sites several hundred kilometers away from the battle lines. These drones have attacked factories, military bases, and energy installations deep inside the adversary’s territory. Russia’s Shahed-136 is a low-cost, low-radar-signature drone that has been particularly effective, forcing Ukraine to change its defenses.
There are also long-range drones, like the UJ-22, developed by the armed forces of Ukraine, capable of precision strikes at a static target within an 800 km range. So far, the drones have attacked critical infrastructure facilities in Russia, which disrupted supply lines and logistics.
The most effective countermeasure against drones now has become electronic warfare. Radio frequencies are jammed by EW systems used by both sides to disrupt drone control and video signals. So, there is essentially a technological cat-and-mouse game where the pilots of the drones constantly shift the frequencies to evade jamming.
In this light, Ukraine and Russia are developing AI-guided drones capable of independently searching for targets to lock onto with no need for communication from a pilot. This, in essence, makes their potential insensitive to jamming signals. While most of these systems are embryonic, it is believed that the future of unmanned aerial vehicles will heavily feature AI-based systems.
On the Russian side, tactical artillery has become increasingly sophisticated. Putting together UAVs, artillery-locating radars, and tanks, the targeting cycles are significantly shorter and much more accurate. The so-called reconnaissance-fire system, very much a Soviet-era concept, couples tactical intelligence with precision strike artillery in real-time. However, low-hanging cloud cover and variation in terrain have adversely impacted the effectiveness of precision munitions such as the Krasnopol.
The Lancet-3 belongs to a class of loitering munitions that have increasingly made up part of Russia’s arsenal to perform reconnaissance, targeting, or strikes against individual targets. For all its limitations, the Lancet is a logical option for Russian forces that experience ammunition constraints against dispersed Ukrainian forces.
Where the traditional artillery practices emphasized the weight of fires, the proliferation of reconnaissance, and precision strike assets shifts the focus toward accuracy. While precision munitions promise targeted hits, they may not be able to provide sufficient lethality. Firing massed artillery remains of primary importance.
It is without a doubt that evolving drone and artillery tactics are going to be one of the determining contours of the conflict in Ukraine, shaping the face of future war. Many of these lessons from the battlefield are going to inform military strategies for the next years.