After months of deliberation, Denmark and the Netherlands agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets after the United States gave its assent to the transfer. But the timeline depends on the completion of training of pilots and ground crews and construction of facilities for maintenance-a process not likely to be rapid. The number of F-16s available for transfer would also depend on the jets’ operability in the Dutch and Danish arsenals and their receipt of F-35 joint strike fighters from the United States.
The Department of Defense in the U.S. announced a training program in Arizona set to begin in October, complementing European efforts to train Ukrainian pilots both in Denmark and Romania. The estimates of training duration vary widely, from just over a month to more than a year. Even after delivery, it will take some time to integrate into Ukraine’s military. The most critical question, of course, is: What will these jets mean for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression?
The introduction of F-16s will significantly enhance Ukraine’s air capabilities, with indirect military and political benefits. Other analysts, such as Frank Hoffman and Maximillian Bremer, along with Kelly Grieco, suggest that the war has challenged traditional assumptions about air dominance. The conflict underlined how hard it was to achieve air superiority since multilayered air defense systems denied the Russian Air Force air superiority in Ukraine. In this regard, the active utility of the F-16s would be very minimal.
The F-16s will make up for losses sustained by the Ukrainian Air Force, which entered the war with about seventy fighter aircraft, including older-generation Mig-39 and Su-27 jets. While Ukraine was given more Mig-39s by Poland and Slovakia, it has lost at least thirty-two fighters. The losses are not unconnected to the superior position of Russia in terms of radar and air-to-air missile capabilities. Russian aircraft are equipped with the latest radar systems, such as the Su-35S and Mig-31BM, and use high-class missiles like the R-77 and R-37M. The Ukrainian fighters, in turn, are of a rank far beneath those of the Russians.
With more powerful radars and greater resistance to jamming, F-16s would detect the presence of Russian aircraft from much longer distances and enable Ukrainian pilots to operate farther from front-line Russian air defenses. These aircraft will be fitted with the AIM-120 AMRAAMs, which will give them similar or even superior performance to that of the Russian R-77 missiles. The idea is they also could integrate many advanced weapon systems onto the F-16s, which could even open the door for NATO countries to provide advanced weapons compatible with the U.S.-made fighter jet.
The move would liberate the Ukrainian anti-air systems to protect against Russian drone and missile attacks, allowing the protection of more ground-based air defenses against the presence of civilian populations and critical infrastructures.
Yet the broader impact of the F-16s on the conflict remains dampened. On the whole, the role that airpower can play in conducting supporting strikes to help offensive maneuvers has been curtailed by anti-air systems rooted on the ground. Employment of all Ukrainian jets would continue to be at risk from Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile system. Ukrainian jets would have to keep flying low, which would allow them to continue in a survivable environment, or at a weak position in fights against Russian fighters flying at higher altitudes.
F-16s in the Ukrainian Air Force supporting forces on the ground near the front lines would be vulnerable to short-range and man-portable air defenses. They will also be at risk on the ground from Russian missile strikes.
This is again notwithstanding the challenges attendant to undertaking the training of Ukrainian pilots, ground crews, and logisticians in the operation and maintenance of the F-16s, which will be worth more in the long term. As the war drags on, the ease with which Western weapon systems, software, and maintenance can be accepted onto that platform will contribute to greater efficiency in military aid to Ukraine.
The long-term goal that binds NATO and Ukraine is full membership of Ukraine in the Alliance. Getting the Ukrainian Air Force accustomed to NATO standards today-together with training on sophisticated systems helps create conditions for interoperability in the future.